Sunday, October 2, 2011

The past is not a realm of possibilities. Things happened the way they did because there was no other way they could have happened. No amount of wishing or regretting will ever change that fact.
Posted by Eshae at 9:13 PM

3 comments:

  1. TitoxdOctober 3, 2011 at 1:25 AM

    More weather wisdom: while the events in the past are set in stone, at the same time, the future is itself a realm of possibilities. I will grant you that the past influences our initial conditions, which in turn restrict the outcomes that can occur in the short-term future. That said, this future is indeed short-term: NWP models have run into the issue that the effect of any given initial condition cannot be measured two weeks into the future. Likewise, the grip of the past on you will also weaken and fade over time, until it too becomes stastical noise.

    Moreover, the main source of error in these ensemble forecasts is underdispersion: The envelope of possibilites produced by the ensemble is often too small. Likewise, ominous forecasts of the future now are likely ignoring the possibility of sunny days in store for you. :)

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  2. EshaeOctober 3, 2011 at 4:02 AM

    Is the future truly a realm of possibilities, though? It's highly dependent on initial conditions.. more so for some people than others. My "underdispersion" is perhaps caused by my experience with the nature of people..

    Things happened the only way they could, because we are all subject to that which makes us who we are. No matter how much we might wish otherwise, given the same set of conditions, we would act EXACTLY the same way.

    As for the future, I'll continue to hope for the sunny days. :) But I'll remember to bring my umbrella for next time a storm catches up to me..

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  3. TitoxdOctober 3, 2011 at 1:00 PM

    Nothing wrong with being cautious and having an umbrella with you. I agree with what you say, but my point is more that different storms might follow the same physical laws, but the slight variations in initial conditions will cause future storms to evolve differently. Even slight variations in the initial conditions will grow exponentially and produce different results...

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